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Brazil distributed solar market set for lower annual additions in 2025

2025-11-27
Source:pv magazine

Brazil installed 6.4 GW of distributed solar capacity between January and September 2025, down 12% from the same period in 2024, and current installation rates point to about 8.5 GW for the full year as residential and commercial segments weaken and regulatory reporting delays persist.

Between January and September 2025, 6.4 GW of distributed generation capacity was added, marking a slowdown compared with the same period in 2024, when 7.3 GW of distributed solar capacity was installed. If the pace observed in the first three quarters continues, distributed generation is expected to add a total of 8.5 GW in 2025.

This would be the first year since 2010 in which the annual addition of distributed generation capacity falls below the previous year’s level.

Image: Aneel.

The most recent system connections may not have been registered by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), and the market generally considers the numbers to be approximately three months behind schedule.

As in previous years, the residential segment drove the growth of distributed generation in 2025, with 3.5 GW connected to the grid between January and September. This was followed by commercial systems, with 1.5 GW, rural systems (734 MW), and industrial systems (497 MW).

In 2024, there were 3.9 GW in residential systems, 1.9 GW in commercial systems, 788 MW in rural systems, and 615 MW in industrial systems.

In other words, while the residential segment saw a 10% decrease in added capacity between January and September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, the commercial segment saw a 21% decrease. The decrease in rural installations was 6%, and in industrial installations, 19%.

It's worth remembering that 2025 was the year with the greatest opportunity for consumers connected to high voltage to migrate to the free market, which specifically includes small businesses and industries. The eventual opening to low-voltage consumers in the coming years could be an alternative for consumers who might choose to invest in distributed generation systems.

In 2024, from January to September, 5.2 GW were installed in on-site consumption systems, 1.5 GW in remote self-consumption systems, and 545 MW in shared generation systems.

Between January and September 2025, São Paulo once again led in new installations, with 830 MW connected. Minas Gerais returned to a leading position, adding 687 MW, followed by Paraná with 600 MW. By region, the Southeast led with 2 GW, followed by the Northeast with 1.5 GW, the Central-West with 1.2 GW, the South with 982 MW, and the North with 638 MW.

During the same period in 2024, São Paulo was the only state to add more than 1 GW, totaling 1.2 GW from January to September. Paraná followed with 672 MW, and Minas Gerais with 654 MW. By region, the Southeast added 2.4 GW, followed by the Northeast with 1.7 GW, the Central-West with 1.4 GW, the South with 1.1 GW, and the North with 639 MW.

In 2025, the Northeast region surpassed the South in accumulated distributed solar generation capacity. By the end of 2024, the South had reached 7.9 GW of added capacity since 2009, while the Northeast had 7.7 GW. Today, the Northeast has accumulated 9.2 GW, compared with 8.9 GW in the South.

In total, Brazil has 43 GW of distributed solar capacity in systems of up to 5 MW. Combined with 19 GW from centralized large-scale PV plants, the country now has 62 GW of photovoltaic capacity in operation.

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